Analysis
NUMERICAL DATA: QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS
A total of 943 terrorism incidents including 37 cases of kidnapping were recorded from 1st January to 31st March 2025. The attacks resulted in 4,296 deaths across the continent. Also, 1,568 people were injured during the attacks. The data shows a fluctuation in the number of increases and decreases in both attacks and deaths from January to March 2025 (see Fig 1). Nonetheless, the total attacks and deaths recorded for Q1 2025 declined by 8% but deaths increased by 35% respectively when compared to quarter four of last years (Q4 2024). However, when compared to the same period last year (Q1 2024), the attacks increased by only 1% and total deaths also increased by approximately 33%. The general observation is that terrorism and violent extremism situation across the continent is much worse in first quarter of 2025 than they were in both first quarter and last quarter of last year (2024).
2. Primary Targets of Attacks
The trend in primary targets changed for the period, as security forces and progovernment
militia groups bore the brunt of terrorist attacks. This is contrary to previous quarter where an more attacks targeted the civilian population. The changes are explained by the escalation of attacks by against security forces by JNIM, ISWAP, and Al-Shabaab which continue to target military bases in the Lake Chad basin, Sahel, and Horn of Africa Regions.
3. Deaths per Category
Consistent with the primary targets, Military and Security Forces casualty was the highest for the period (1,678). A significant number of Civilians (1,249) were killed by terrorist groups, while 1,369 Terrorists were also eliminated during attacks perpetrated by the groups (see fig 3).
4. Type of Attack
In 19 attacks, a combination of IEDs and SALWs were used, and 182 people killed and 37 cases of kidnappings were recorded, and 05 people kidnapped were killed (see fig 5). Deaths resulting from mixed use of IEDs and SALWs and Kidnapping accounted for 5% of the total deaths for the period.
5. Deaths by Type of Attack
In 19 attacks, a combination of IEDs and SALWs were used, and 182 people killed and 37 cases of kidnappings were recorded, and 05 people kidnapped were killed (seefig 5). Deaths resulting from mixed use of IEDs and SALWs and Kidnapping accounted for 5% of the total deaths for the period.
